Justin's Political Corner

Hillary Clinton would be “the ideal Democratic presidential candidate in 2016,” sweeping her party’s primary and besting potential Republican candidates other than Chris Christie, according to the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling.

The secretary of state has a 54 percent favorable rating among registered voters in polling released Thursday, with 39 percent viewing her unfavorably. Among Democrats, those numbers were 79 percent favorable to 15 percent unfavorable.

She led a poll of possible Democratic primary candidates by an imposing margin, garnering a majority 57 percent support. Vice President Joe Biden came in at a distant second, with 16 percent, while seven other prospective candidates, including New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, all failed to break 5 percent.

Clinton also would lead three possible GOP candidates — former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Rep. Paul Ryan (Wis.) — by margins of 14 percentage points. A matchup against Clinton and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, whom she edged 44 percent to 42 percent, could be much closer.

The 2016 Republican primary may be a challenge for Christie, who tied for fourth among possible 2016 Republican nominees. Christie was more popular nationally with Democrats than with Republicans in the PPP survey.

Rubio was the most popular among Republicans, with 21 percent of GOP support, followed by Ryan at 16 percent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 15 percent, and Christie and Bush at 14 percent each. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and Texas Gov. Rick Perry all saw single-digit support.

With Clinton and Biden excluded from the Democratic field, 40 percent of primary voters were undecided. Cuomo and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts took the top places, with 19 percent and 16 percent respectively, with O’Malley, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia and former Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer trailing.

h/t: Huffington Post

Late last week more than a dozen Republican governors declared that they will not build the insurance market exchanges called for by the Affordable Care Act, including prominent names like Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, John Kasich of Ohio, Scott Walker of Wisconsin and Rick Perry of Texas.

On Monday, Mary Fallin of Oklahoma joined them, declaring in a statementthat it “does not benefit Oklahoma taxpayers to actively support and fund a new government program that will ultimately be under the control of the federal government.”

The original deadline for states to notify the Department of Health and Human Services on whether they intend to build their own exchange was last Friday, but the administration extended it to Dec. 14. About a dozen Republican governors are weighing their options, including Chris Christie of New Jersey, Rick Scott of Florida and Terry Branstad of Iowa.

The decisions carry important implications for the long-term arc of Obamacare, which supporters and opponents alike agree is here to stay now that President Obama has been re-elected. The Obama administration wants states to build the exchanges so they have an incentive to make the law work. If the federal government takes over, state-level Republicans have a scapegoat in case things go wrong.

The more states stonewall the exchanges, the more it complicates the task of the federal government. One challenge is that the law lacks an automatic funding mechanism for HHS to set up state exchanges. Enrollment is slated to begin next October, and the exchanges are scheduled to start functioning by January 2014.

Twenty-three states, mostly Democratic, and Washington, D.C. have said they’ll move forwardwith the exchanges, either on their own or in partnership with the feds.

Propelling the GOP governors’ stance is a desire to protect themselves politically from accusations of abetting a law that conservatives fervently oppose. Some governors argue that the regulations are too stifling and provide little flexibility for them to construct the marketplaces in accordance with their states’ needs.

h/t: Sahil Kapur at TPM

If Republican challenger Mitt Romney doesn’t emerge triumphant on Election Day, the party will have a deep bench of contenders to draw from in 2016. Here is a list of the top 10 to watch.

1. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie

In 2008, Republicans begged Christie to make a run for the White House. In 2016, the combative governor may be better positioned to seek the presidency, and there are signs that Christie wants the job: He used his keynote speech at the Republican convention mainly to tout his own accomplishments. Republicans love to see Christie play the role of partisan warrior, but Christie also projects a real sincerity that voters on both sides of the aisle appreciate. Christie’s tough talk didn’t stop him from winning in a left-leaning state.  

2. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio

The Cuban-American senator is widely seen as a top pick for 2016, particularly as the GOP desperately needs to win over Hispanic voters as the electorate becomes more diverse. Rubio also has strong ties to the tea party, credentials that could help him in a Republican primary. In order to get the nomination, however, Rubio would need to prove that he’s a leader with substance commensurate to his celebrity. He’s also not the only Latino Republican with star power: New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez’s fiery speech at the convention blew Rubio’s remarks out of the water. 

3. Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell

The outgoing chairman of the Republican Governors Association has been both charming on the campaign trail and adept at pushing his agenda through a bipartisan Legislature. As the governor of a swing state, he’s well-positioned for a run at the White House once he’s term-limited out of office in 2013. An Army veteran, McDonnell also has military credentials that many other contenders lack. McDonnell has positioned himself as a problem-solver, not an ideologue, but his willingness to sign legislation regulating abortion hasn’t endeared him to those who are moderate on social issues.

4. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush

Former President George W. Bush’s little brother has been out of politics for a while—he currently works in the private sector and is an active proponent of education reform— but he’s indisputably an elder statesman in the Republican Party. With a strong record on education and immigration reform, Bush represents a moderate brand of conservatism that could appeal to swing voters and Hispanics. In a party increasingly motivated by tea party sentiments, however, Bush may be less natural a fit. He has even publicly criticized the direction the GOP is moving in.

5. Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan

If GOP nominee Mitt Romney loses in 2012, his vice presidential pick is well-positioned for a run at the White House in 2016. Ryan, the policy-focused chairman of the House Budget Committee, is widely viewed by Republicans as one of the party’s best spokesmen for its legislative agenda. His vice presidential nomination ensures that he’s nationally known. The biggest downside to a Ryan bid: As a member of the House who has spent his life in Washington, Ryan has little executive or business experience. So far, however, that hasn’t slowed his rise.

6. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul

Libertarian icon Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, may have run for the presidency for the last time, but he has an heir waiting in the wings: his son, Rand. The elder Paul’s cult following showed its strength during the 2012 Republican primaries, and his minimalist-government philosophy has made its mark on mainstream Republican thought. Rand, who endorsed Romney for president in 2012, is seen as less ideologically rigid than his father, an impression that hurts the younger Paul among die-hard Ron Paul supporters but helps him garner wider GOP support.   

7. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal

The young and wonky governor of Louisiana coasted to a second term last year, and 2016 might finally mark a good opportunity for Jindal to take a run at higher office. Jindal has been viewed as an up-and-coming star in the party since he won the governorship in 2007. He will serve as chairman of the Republican Governors Association next year. Jindal didn’t shy away from raising his national profile this cycle, stumping for Romney and heading to Iowa to back Texas Gov. Rick Perry in the Republican primary. Jindal returned to Iowa this fall, traveling the state with former Sen. Rick Santorum in a campaign to oust a state Supreme Court judge who has supported same-sex marriage.

8. South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley

When Nikki Haley rode a wave of tea party support into the South Carolina governor’s mansion, she was hailed as the party’s newest breakout star. As a woman and an Indian-American, Haley represents two demographics—women and minorities—that Republicans struggled to win over in 2012. Haley’s governorship hasn’t been all smooth sailing, however; she has alienated both opponents and former supporters with her management style, The State has reported. Haley may be more well-regarded nationally than she is locally.

9. South Dakota Sen. John Thune

Rumored as a potential candidate in 2012, Thune chose instead to stay in the Senate and focus on ascending in the Republican leadership. The Senate Republican Conference chairman doesn’t have strong name recognition nationally, but he’s well-known in Washington as a legislator who has the fundraising and retail politicking skills—not to mention the good looks—of a presidential hopeful. Strong D.C. ties have their downsides; in Thune’s case, it could include his vote to bail out Wall Street in 2008.

10. Indiana Rep. Mike Pence

Pence, a six-term congressman, looks set to win the Indiana governorship on Tuesday. Some Republicans are already calling on him to consider a run for even higher office. Pence—who describes himself as “a Christian, a conservative, and a Republican, in that order”— is well-regarded in the tea party and is an able fundraiser.

h/t: Yahoo! News

(Reuters) - Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney appears to be in the final stages of deciding who to pick as his vice presidential running mate, with speculation growing that he has narrowed his choice down to a short-list of three.

Ohio Senator Rob Portman, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal all offer various strengths to Romney should he decide to pick one of them to join his battle to unseat President Barack Obama and his vice president, Joe Biden, in the November 6 election.

Many Republicans believe Romney will break from tradition and announce his choice well before the party’s convention in Tampa in late August that will formally nominate Romney as the Republican candidate.

Campaign officials were loathe to discuss the selection process or the short list but made clear that Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, had yet to make up his mind.

Naming his vice presidential running mate in coming days could help Romney remove a withering spotlight instigated by the Obama campaign over his personal financial information and tenure at the private equity firm Bain Capital.

The Democrats accuse Romney of leading Bain at a time when it invested in companies that outsourced U.S. jobs overseas. Romney says he was running the Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City at the time and had given up all management of the company.

The controversy is proving to be a distraction for the Romney campaign and overshadowing his attempt to make the election campaign about Obama’s handling of the U.S. economy amid 8.2 percent unemployment and record budget deficits.

Others who are believed to be under consideration for the No. 2 position include New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, South Dakota Senator John Thune and Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan. 

h/t; Reuters

The AFSCME, a union representing 1.6 million public service workers, on Tuesday uploaded a video to YouTube that humorously criticizes Republicans for their opposition to the Affordable Care Act.

The video, based on the intro to the 1970′s sitcom The Brady Bunch, claims that “working people don’t matter” to prominent Republicans like House Speaker John Boehner (OH), Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) and Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

All the Republicans in the video have vowed to do whatever they can to repeal President Barack Obama’s health care reform law.

h/t: Eric W. Dolan at The Raw Story

When choosing a running mate, Mitt Romney will consider many factors: Can this person offer a bump in the polls? Will he or she excite the base? Could this person take the reins if necessary? Will we get along?

He will also weigh each candidate’s ideological moorings. Let’s take a look at where the candidates stand based on their voting records in public office.

For the answer, we dive into the informative—albeit imperfect—world of congressional scorecards. Advocacy groups and news outlets commonly rate lawmakers based on some standard relevant to the organization, which helps us determine where each contender falls on the ideological spectrum.

In the Senate, Rob Portman of Ohio, Marco Rubio of Florida, Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire and John Thune of South Dakota commonly appear on lists of possible running mates. Scorecards that measured voting records in 2011 suggest that among these, Rubio had the most conservative voting record and Portman the most moderate. Ayotte and Thune came in somewhere in between.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio

Across the board, Rubio scores the highest in ranking studies conducted by conservative groups, in part because of his limited voting record in Congress. In reports filed by Heritage Action, The Club for Growth and The American Conservative Union, each group placed the newcomer in its top tier of conservative members.

Ohio Sen. Rob Portman

Chris Redfern, chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, recently said said that Portman represented “the extreme fringe of the Republican Party,” but an examination of his voting record over his nearly 15 years in Congress does live up to that rhetoric. While Portman’s record makes it clear that he is no liberal, his record puts him more in line with the pragmatic wing of the party.

National Journal’s analysis of the Senate in 2011 put Portman just two places ahead of Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar, who in May lost a primary battle to tea party-backed candidate Richard Mourdock. The magazine named Portman the 35th most conservative senator, far from the “fringe” members. (If you examine his entire record, however, Portman is no Lugar: He holds an average 87.92 percent American Conservative Union rating over his career, putting him more than 10 percentage points ahead of the Indiana senator.)

Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan

The Republican budget proposals drafted by Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan since he became chairman of the House Budget Committee have boosted his stock tremendously among conservatives, but National Journal’s analysis found that, compared with his House colleagues, Ryan doesn’t rank in the top 100 conservatives in the chamber.

National Journal’s report labeled him the “150th” most conservative House member in 2011. Meanwhile, his ACU rating dropped 16 percentage points in 2011 to 80 percent, although he retains a high lifetime rating of 91.96 percent.

The governors

There a chance Romney will look beyond Washington to make his pick. Unfortunately, the market for scorecards that measure the record of America’s governors isn’t nearly as robust as it is for Congress.

The Fiscal Policy Report Card on America’s Governors, conducted every two years by economist Chris Edwards of the libertarian Cato Institute, is one measure to judge the state executives. Edwards is still preparing the 2012 report, which will include grades for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, so his 2010 database is the most recent available. In that report, which measures governors’ tax policy record and awards a letter grade based on a bell curve, two of the potential VP choices received top marks. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty were two of just four governors to receive an A grade in the 2010 biennial report. Jindal scored second-highest in the nation with a score of 71, with Pawlenty just behind him with a score of 66.

Although Edwards’ 2012 report isn’t due out until September, he offered some hints as to how governors rumored to be on Romney’s list of possible running mates would fare. In his preliminary research, he said, things might not look so good for McDonnell, but Christie could score high.

h/t: Yahoo! News’ The Ticket

he Supreme Court ruled today that the Affordable Care Act, the comprehensive health care reform package signed by President Obama in 2010, is constitutional. The Court upheld the law’s most controversial provision, the individual mandate, ruling that it is constitutional under the government’s authority to levy and collect taxes.

Republicans have falsely claimed the mandate was the “biggest tax increase ever in American history,” so of course, conservatives immediately jumped on the idea that the individual mandate was a massive tax hike on the middle class, reviving an argument Republicans have made since the law passed more than two years ago:

WISCONSIN GOV. SCOTT WALKER (R) declared that it was a “massive tax increase.”

INDIANA SEN. DAN COATS (R) said “Right now we have something with a big tax and the American people who rejected that in 2010 are going to have a chance to break the tie in 2012.

LOUISIANA GOV. BOBBY JINDAL (R) said “Ironically, the Supreme Court has decided to be far more honest about Obamacare than Obama was. They rightly have called it a tax. Today’s decision is a blow to our freedoms.”

IDAHO SEN. MIKE CRAPO (R) touted that the mandate was ruled a tax. “Now, we’re back into that argument,” he said.

The mandate can indeed be characterized as a tax, as the Court found. But it is not a massive tax hike on the middle class, much less the biggest tax hike in American history. The tax imposed by the individual mandate amounts to either $695 or 2.5 percent of household income for those who don’t have insurance and are not exempt based on income levels. By comparison, the payroll tax cut extension Republicans repeatedly blocked earlier this year would have added 3.1 percentage points to the tax and cost the average family $1,500 a year.

The mandate, meanwhile, would hit a small amount of Americans — somewhere between 2 and 5 percent — according to a study from the Urban Institute. 

h/t: Travis Waldron at Think Progress Economy

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has adopted a Southern strategy—touting the “accomplishments” of the most conservative governors from the states of the old Confederacy—as he enters the critical final weeks of the historic Wisconsin recall election.

Walker, who has aggressively challenged Wisconsin’s progressive tradition, is bringing in Southern governors who promote union-busting policies and economic-development strategies that raid Northern states and move jobs to states where organized labor is restrained and wages are kept low.

Next week, the Wisconsin governor who last year led the fight to strip collective-bargaining rights away from public employees and teachers, will campaign with South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who proudly describes herself as “a union buster.”

In an interview with Greta Van Susteren on Fox News Wednesday (following an interview with Walker), Haley proudly declared: “There’s a reason South Carolina’s the new ‘it’ state. It’s because we’re a union buster.”

Haley has been the chief proponent of so-called “right to work” laws that undermine the collective bargaining and organizing rights of unions. She dismissed union members as “thugs” and said: “I’m not going to stop beating up on the unions.”

That’s a big deal in the Wisconsin recall race, as Walker has been under pressure to explain his appearance in a video where he and a wealthy donor are seen discussing strategies to make Wisconsin a low-wage “right to work” state.

The South Carolina governor recently promoted a package of “reforms” that will give South Carolina the toughest right-to-work laws in the nation.

And Haley wants to take right-to-work national: “Barack Obama doesn’t appreciate right-to-work states. Mitt Romney appreciates right-to-work states,” she said after endorsing Mitt Romney for the Republican presidential nomination. “I need a partner in the White House.”

Jindal has been a leading proponent of “corporate raiding” strategies that are used to move jobs from Northern states to the South.

And Jindal’s Louisiana has raided Wisconsin.

In 2009, Gardner Denver closed its manufacturing facility in Sheboygan, Wisconsin—where the company and its predecessor (Thomas Industries) had produced pumps and air compressors for seventy years—and left 366 workers, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers union members and non-union employees, without jobs.

Where did there jobs go? Monroe, Louisiana.

Why? Because Louisiana state government gave away massive tax breaks and other benefits to the company.

h/t: John Nichols at The Nation

WASHINGTON — If Haley Barbour advised Mitt Romney about whom to pick for his running mate, the former Mississippi governor might repeat something he said in a book about his home state’s politics: “Never make a political decision until you have to, for things could always change.”

Romney’s search for a running mate will be guided by a few factors, and the individual qualities and resumes of each potential pick will play an important role. But there will be another significant element: the situational dynamics of the presidential election four months from now, when the GOP convention in Tampa begins on Aug. 27.

The safer picks are all white men: Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

The riskier picks are almost all women or minorities who are rising stars in the Republican Party but with less experience in national politics than a Portman or Daniels: This set includes Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

Two white men are on the riskier list: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, whose weakness is that he might be so charismatic that he would outshine Romney, and Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, whose budget plan is lauded by many conservatives but tough to defend in political sound-bite combat.

Here are the pros and cons for each choice:

ROB PORTMAN
Pros: He is a 56-year-old former White House budget director (from 2006 to 2007) and successful member of Congress who remained popular with constituents during seven terms from 1993 to 2005. He also served as a U.S. trade representative to boot. Portman has a strong political network in Ohio, which again will be one of the most crucial battleground states in the election. And he is well-known for his keen mind and firm grasp of a broad range of policy issues. He served in George H.W. Bush’s White House as well, so he knows how both the executive and legislative branches work.

Cons: Portman’s stint as budget director under George W. Bush would open a door for Democrats to use one of their favorite attacks: Bush inherited a budget surplus from Democratic President Bill Clinton and handed a more than $400 billion budget deficit to Obama. On a more superficial level, while Portman is friendly with many in the press, he does not bring any extra charisma or excitement to the ticket. In many conservative’s eyes, Portman’s current position as a legislator instead of an executive (such as governor) is also a minor strike against him.

MARCO RUBIO
Pros: Rubio, 41, is a rock star. He’s young, good-looking, well-spoken and a Latino. He’s from the must-win state of Florida. What’s not to like?

Cons: He’s young and only in his second year as a senator. He would also be certain to attract a high level of scrutiny to his past, especially about whether he tweaked his family’s story of leaving Cuba to make it more dramatic and if he used a credit card issued by the Republican Party to buy personal items while a state legislator. Rubio has been the most Shermanesque of all the potential VP picks in his promises to refuse any request to consider the job.

CHRIS CHRISTIE
Pros: Christie, 49, is as outsized a personality as there is in modern American politics. He loves the spotlight. He talks straighter than blunt. Some might call his a smash mouth. And voters love him. After three years as chief executive, his approval rating in New Jersey, a Democratic stronghold, is at an all-time high. He has balanced budgets in the face of huge projected deficits without raising taxes and has achieved significant reforms in the state’s pension system for government workers.

Cons: He might love the spotlight a little too much for Mitt Romney’s liking. He and Romney are worlds apart in terms of personal style. It would be a lot to expect him to hang back and play second fiddle. In addition, having two candidates from the Northeast limits the ticket’s geographical appeal and its ability to win over rural voters. His weight is also a factor.

MITCH DANIELS
Pros: Like Portman, Daniels, 63, is also a former White House budget director. He served in that post from 2001 to 2003 and then went on to become governor, now in his second term. Like Christie, he has imposed conservative reforms as governor in budget spending, taxation and state worker salaries and benefits as well as health care. He is one of the most articulate Republicans in discussing the national debt. Also like Christie, Daniels had been wooed intensely by Republican insiders and voters to run in the primary against Romney but refused.

Cons: While Daniels served as George W. Bush’s budget director, a surplus turned to a deficit under his watch, thanks in large part to a major recession caused by the September 11 attacks and major tax cuts that Bush pushed through. Daniels did not run for president because his wife and daughters (or at least some of them) didn’t want him to. It’s not clear whether he’ll even agree to being vetted for VP by the Romney campaign for the same reasons. He also lacks the electrifying presence of a Christie or Rubio. His personality is low-key and droll. His tenure as an executive at drugmaker Eli Lilly and Co. in the 1990s would be closely examined.

BOBBY JINDAL
Pros: Jindal is another governor who has accomplished a lot that will appeal to conservatives — cutting taxes and spending — and taking on teachers’ and state employee unions. And at 40 years old, the former Rhodes scholar is younger than other potential picks. He was re-elected in a landslide last fall and just succeeded in engineering the passage of a sweeping education reform plan by the GOP-controlled legislature. He is now taking on the challenge of trying to curb state worker pensions, though that is proving to be a tougher slog. Jindal is a former congressman (from 2005 to 2008) who in the 1990s ran Louisiana’s health and hospitals system and then its university system. He is the son of immigrant parents who came to the States from Punjab, India, six months before he was born.

Cons: He is known nationally mostly for his widely panned 2009 speech giving the official Republican response to President Barack Obama’s first State of the Union address. He is not seen as a particularly inspiring figure. His state, Louisiana, is already considered sure win for Romney. And there are two minor hurdles for him to surmount: First, Jindal endorsed Texas Gov. Rick Perry in the primary. After Perry dropped out, Jindal declined to endorse anyone else. And second, Jindal’s Washington-based consultant, Curt Anderson, is not on the best terms with Stuart Stevens, the top strategist on Romney’s campaign.

PAUL RYAN
Pros: The 42-year-old House budget chairman is a numbers-and-policy ace. He runs through the intricacies of Medicare, Social Security and budgets with the efficiency of a machine. And despite initial resistance a few years ago from many in the GOP, his detailed plan to overhaul federal spending and entitlement programs — the biggest drivers of the nation’s long-term debt –- has become essentially the party’s platform. On a few occasions, he has taken on President Obama directly and more than held his own in policy debates. Being tall and good-looking doesn’t hurt him. And Wisconsin is a swing state.

Cons: Ryan’s “Road Map” may be accepted by the GOP as its best attempt to fix some of the nation’s most vexing problems: the budget deficit and national debt. But that doesn’t mean Romney and many Republicans want to make that a central issue in the race this fall. They want the economy — and Obama’s handling of it — to be the focus. A concern is that putting Ryan on the ticket could make a plan that hasn’t yet been enacted into law the central focus — instead of what Republicans view as mistakes made by the incumbent president. This is the reason Ryan is a highly unlikely pick.

TIM PAWLENTY
Pros: Pawlenty, 51, suffered a political bruising during his time as a candidate in the primary but has emerged as a trusted adviser to Romney after he endorsed him. The personal connection between the two men should not be underestimated. Pawlenty also has an ability to connect with blue-collar voters that Romney does not. And there would be few doubts about Pawlenty’s trustworthiness or loyalty.

Cons: He offers little heft to the equation in terms of geographic advantage, in that he is from Minnesota (which is not a swing state) and showed no distinct ability to excite any passion or confidence among voters during his primary run.

BOB MCDONNELL
Pros: McDonnell, 57, is governor of a key battleground state and he looks the part of vice president. He’s eloquent and smart enough. He gets along with people well and seems like a natural fit for Romney. After Portman, there seems to be no other potential VP pick who is a better match for Romney when it comes to pure compatibility.

Cons: McDonnell doesn’t stand out. He has not distinguished himself with any particular accomplishment or stylistic trademark. His handling of a bill requiring an ultrasound before a woman obtains an abortion was widely perceived as shaky. He first supported a transvaginal procedure before backing away from this stance and saying only an abdominal, noninvasive ultrasound should be mandated. 

SUSANA MARTINEZ
Pros: The 52-year-old Texas native and granddaughter of Mexican immigrants has an inspiring, up-from-the-bootstraps personal story. The former district attorney is the first Latina to become governor in the history of the United States. She is also the head of state in a Democratic-leaning state that is nonetheless considered by some to be a swing state. Her two years in office so far have gone reasonably well.

Cons: Not much is known about Martinez. She has vowed she would turn down an offer to be considered for the vice presidential spot. And she is likely not seasoned enough to step into the vice presidential role.

RICK SANTORUM
Pros: Santorum, 53, became a hero to many conservative Republicans with his insurgent campaign for the GOP nomination, which went further than anybody ever expected. Santorum showed a talent for grassroots campaigning (that Pennsylvania campaign watchers already knew about) and a knack for articulating a conservative message that connects with voters in a way Romney never has had. He’s also from a swing state, though Pennsylvania has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since it went for George H. W. Bush in 1988.

Cons: Santorum waged a fierce and sometimes bitter battle with Romney in the primary. It’s not yet clear how much the fences between the two have been mended. Santorum is holding off on endorsing Romney, waiting until he can meet with the presumptive nominee and press him to hold fast to conservative principles on key issues. How that meeting goes will likely dictate whether Santorum is even in the running for the VP spot. But Santorum’s lack of message discipline and penchant for veering into social issues are likely to be turnoffs for the Romney campaign.

NIKKI HALEY
Pros: The 40-year-old governor of South Carolina is a talented, dynamic and charismatic political figure. She’s the youngest governor in the country. Haley is another player among the bumper crop of young, minority stars rising in the Republican Party. She is the daughter of Sikh immigrants from India.

Cons: Haley is struggling as governor. Her approval rating is in the 30s range. Her endorsement of Romney before the Palmetto State’s January primary failed to help him beat back Newt Gingrich, who won convincingly. And she is probably too inexperienced.

MIKE HUCKABEE
Pros: The former governor turned Fox News personality won Iowa during his 2008 presidential bid and attracted the same evangelical voting bloc that went for Santorum this year. The 56-year-old remains a hero to many conservatives. His name recognition is substantial, since he has been on national television regularly during prime time most weekends for the last three and a half years. He has an ability to present conservative positions in ways that are more winsome than is true for many other Republicans.

Cons: Huckabee is taken more seriously as a cultural force than as a political figure. And like Santorum, he would bring rightward drift to the ticket at a time when the Romney campaign is counting on the Republican base remaining steadfast (because of the party’s intense opposition to Obama) and is focused instead on winning over independents and moderates.

H/T: Jon Ward at Huffington Post

Two teachers have launched a recall drive to oust Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) and state House Speaker Chuck Kleckley (R-Lake Charles) from office.

Angie Bonvillain and Brenda Romero, teachers in Calcasieu Parish, have launched recalls for both over theeducation reform policies recently passed by the legislature. The policies include relaxing teacher tenure rules, increased power for school administrators to fire teachers, tying test scores to teacher performance and the promotion of school vouchers, along with the creation of new charter schools.

“This is not education reform,” Bonvillain said. “It will gut public schools in a lot of ways. We do not feel like this will help education.”

Bonvillain and Romero said that Jindal’s policies, which were enacted in recent weeks by legislators, convinced them there is a need to change the state’s leadership. The move comes less than a year after Jindal was reelected to a second term by 49 points over a little known Democratic opponent, teacher Tara Hollis.

The two said the policies pushed by Jindal will be destructive to public schools, moving money toward private schools and relying on test scores to gauge teacher performance. Romero noted that the group also is looking at Jindal’s plans for the state’s retirement system and his efforts to privatize state prisons to galvanize support.

Romero suggested that Jindal is not working alone, saying that she believes the American Legislative Exchange Council is behind Jindal’s efforts.

“The governor is doing the job of ALEC,” she said. “They are doing an overhaul of the entire state. It is a scripted ALEC overhaul.”

Romero and Bonvillain face an uphill battle. Under Louisiana law, they must gather signatures from a third of all registered voters in the state to force a Jindal recall and a third of all registered voters in Kleckley’s House district to recall him. The signature counts are roughly 10,000 for Kleckley and 900,000 for Jindal within 180 days of the start of the petitions. The requirements have been called some of the toughest in the nation.

Bonvillain declined to say how many signatures have been collected since the petitions went out three weeks ago, but said there has been an enthusiastic response.

Romero said she is meeting with statewide organizers this weekend to discuss the signature drive and also will meet those behind the effort to recall Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R). The teacher’s union and Democratic Party are not behind the effort, said Romero, but it has been bipartisan in terms of who has signed.

“Bobby Jindal has accomplished something I have not seen anyone else do: He has blurred the lines between parties,” Romero said. “Republicans are signing just as quickly. They feel betrayed.”

In addition to the June recall pending against Walker, two other governors in American history — North Dakota’s Lynn Frazier (R) in 1921 and California’s Gray Davis (D) in 2003 — have faced recalls; both were removed from office. Former Arizona Gov. Evan Mecham (R) had a recall qualify against him in 1988 but was impeached prior to the election. Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) and Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder (R) are also facing recall drives against them this year.

Recall Bobby “Piyush” Jindal!

h/t: John Celock at Huffington Post

With the GOP contest winding down, speculation about Mitt Romney’s potential running mate — and the denials and quasi-denials from each of the prospects — has already begun.

Just like possible presidential candidates playing coy before their formal announcements, members of the likely vice presidential shortlist also work to dampen speculation of who the party’s nominee might be. This year, a handful of top prospects have outright said they wouldn’t accept the position if it was offered.

Still, none of them has actually been asked yet — and their answers certainly could change if they were to get that call from Romney.

-Rob Portman: “I don’t take it seriously. I think at the end of the day, Mitt Romney will make a personal decision and he’ll choose somebody else. And that’s fine. It’s fine because my goal in life is to be the best legislator I can be — and to help Ohio.”

-Marco Rubio: “I’m not going to be the vice president.”

-Chris Christie: “If Gov. [Mitt] Romney were to come and talk to me about it, I’d listen because I love my party enough and I love my country enough to listen. But I love being governor of New Jersey. If you’re betting, bet on me being the governor of New Jersey into next year.” (Still, his recent trip to Israel has fueled even more VP speculation.)

-Paul Ryan: “I’m not giving any serious thought to something that is a decision that’s somebody else’s a long time from now. I don’t see the point of it. I feel like I’m in a good place in Congress.”

-Tim Pawlenty: “The answer is I’m not going to be considering that and I’ve taken myself off the list. He’s going to have a lot of great people to pick from. I was down that road before with Sen. (John) McCain. I’m honored to help Governor Romney as a volunteer and help him in any way I can.”

-Bobby Jindal: “I’m not gonna turn down something that’s not been offered for me.”

h/t: Emily Schultheis at Politico.com