Justin's Political Corner
The Republican Party is losing one of its potential front-running candidates for governor.
U.S. Rep. Aaron Schock has opted not to seek the governor’s mansion, sources told the Chicago Sun-Times.
The young GOP rising star is expected to make a formal announcement Friday.
“He said back in the fall he was going to see whether he thought he could do more good running for re-election for Congress or running for governor,” Schock aide Steve Shearer told the Peoria Star late Thursday.
Schock, 31, ultimately decided to remain on Capitol Hill, where he serves on the House Ways and Means Committee, said Shearer, Schock’s chief of staff and campaign manager.
But the young third-term Peoria congressman also faced the reality of a crowded GOP field — and a tough general election race if he prevailed.
Republicans still potentially in the running include state Treasurer Dan Rutherford; state Sen. Kirk Dillard, of Hinsdale; state Sen. Bill Brady, of Bloomington; Winnetka millionaire Bruce Rauner, and WLS-AM (890) radio talk show host Dan Proft.
Rauner has already formed an exploratory committee stocked with business leaders capable of raising money to add to contributions Rauner can make from his own fortune.
“Aaron realized he is only 31 and is not willing to risk everything against Rauner’s millions and probably Lisa Madigan,” said one state House Republican familiar with Schock’s thinking.
Madigan, the Illinois attorney general and daughter of state Speaker Michael Madigan, is eyeing a primary run against Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn. Former Commerce Secretary William Daley also is a possible Democratic candidate.
h/t: Chicago Sun-Times
Democrat Gov. Pat Quinn of Illinois has had some terrible ratings for a long time, but these latest numbers from PPP are just disastrously bad. Thanks in part to presiding over an income tax hike necessary to pay for state government services, Quinn’s worked his way down to a 25-64 job approval score, and predictably, his numbers in hypothetical 2014 matchups with Republicans are just awful:
- 37-44 vs. state Sen. Kirk Dillard
- 39-43 vs. Treasurer Dan Rutherford
- 40-39 vs. Rep. Aaron Schock
Obviously, lots of Democrats are thinking about replacing Quinn, so Tom Jensen tested Attorney General Lisa Madigan (who has high name rec) and former White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley (who doesn’t) as well. Madigan leads Dillard and Rutherford 46-37 and Schock 46-38, while Daley trails Dillard (34-36) and Rutherford (37-38) but edges Schock 40-35.
Madigan has long been mentioned as potential gubernatorial candidate and has a good 48-32 favorability rating overall and a 68-16 score among Democratic primary voters. In a direct head-to-head with Quinn, she trounces him 64-20. Even Daley comes out ahead, too, though, 37-34, which really should give Quinn second thoughts about seeking reelection.
Meanwhile, on the GOP side, Rutherford noses Schock 27-26 in a hypothetical three-way primary, with Dillard at 17. He also takes the top spot in PPP’s kitchen-sink scenario:
- Dan Rutherford: 19
- Aaron Schock: 18
- Bill Brady: 14
- Kirk Dillard: 12
- Joe Walsh: 8
- Bruce Rauner: 7
- Someone else: 7
- Not sure: 15
As for the additional names there: Bill Brady was the GOP’s 2010 nominee, who barely beat Dillard for the nod and then barely lost to Quinn; Joe Walsh is the infamous loudmouth and soon-to-be-former congressman; and Bruce Rauner is a wealthy private equity titan.
The scale of the problems that led the Romney campaign to drop challenges to Rick Santorum’s petitions in Illinois and allow him to appear on the ballot became clearer this week, according to a report from the Daily Herald of Arlington Heights.
Last week, BuzzFeed reported that the Romney campaign dropped challenges to Santorum’s signature petitions in several Illinois counties even when he lacked the requisite number of signatures, basically allowing him to appear on the ballot in almost every part of the state. The strange decision, BuzzFeed noted, appeared to have come from Illinois Treasurer Dan Rutherford, who officially withdrew the challenges. Rutherford offered basically no explanation, telling BuzzFeed, “We decided to be spirited and let it go.”
Now it appears there’s more to the story. Rutherford, who was responsible for collecting signatures for Mitt Romney, made two crucial errors that led to a deal between the two campaigns. Not only did he struggle to get enough signatures for Romney, but he had the signatures notarized out of state, an error that could have prevented Romney from appearing on the ballot at all. The Romney campaign had to send paid staffers to collect signatures in Illinois to get Romney on the ballot, according to Politico.
Once the Romney campaign challenged Santorum’s petitions, the Santorum camp came back with its own challenge based on the notarization error. Santorum’s Illinois state director, Jon Zahm, said that notarizing in Massachusetts instead of Illinois is “a pretty serious mistake” and that the dueling challenges led to a truce between the two campaigns.
The mishap calls into question just how organized the Romney campaign, thought to be a well-oiled machine, really is — something some have begun to question as the primary drags on. According to Politico, the Romney camp was shocked that Rutherford, a statewide officeholder who is rumored to be planning a run for governor, dropped the ball in so many regards.
Andrea Saul, a spokesperson for the Romney campaign, told TPM in a statement:
“Sen. Santorum outright failed to qualify to be on the ballot in four congressional districts in Illinois. However, in other districts where he fell short, it would have been incumbent on us or another campaign to force him off the ballot. We decided against doing that. All of Sen. Santorum’s ballot access problems have been a result of his own organizational failures.”
Could this kill Dan Rutherford’s chances of running for Governor in 2014?
h/t: Pema Levy at TPM
