Justin's Political Corner

CARACAS, Venezuela — Acting President Nicolás Maduro managed to muster 50.66 percent of the vote over challenger Henrique Capriles’ 49.07 percent, in a much tighter-than-expected presidential election Sunday.

“Today we can say that we had a fair electoral triumph,” said Maduro, 50, after the results were announced.

About 78 percent of Venezuela’s nearly 19 million eligible voters cast ballots Sunday, The New York Times reported.

After election authorities announced the result, Maduro’s supporters celebrated outside Miraflores presidential palace, although the party drew nowhere near as large a crowd as past socialist victories.

But while the “Chavistas” partied, opposition candidate Capriles cried foul. He said he refused to accept the results and called for a recount.

“Today’s loser is you,” Capriles told a news conference, referring to Maduro, according to Agence France-Presse. “We won’t recognize a result until every vote has been counted.”

The end of Venezuela’s election day showed a country more divided than ever during the emotionally charged aftermath following Chávez’s death from cancer.

Hand-picked by the beloved Chávez before his death last month, Maduro had commanded double-digit percentage points ahead of Capriles in most polls.

But that lead started slipping as Capriles went on the offensive, with ample ammunition of the country’s dire reality.

Despite the government’s largesse — using the world’s biggest crude reserves to fund poverty-fighting programs at home and provide cheap oil to regional allies like Cuba — problems such as high inflation, produce shortages and soaring murder rates continue to cripple the South American country.

H/T: Salon

CARACAS, Venezuela — President Hugo Chávez’s crusade to transform Venezuela into a socialist state, which has bitterly divided the nation, was put to the stiffest electoral test of his nearly 14 years in power on Sunday in a closely fought presidential election.

Reveille blared from sound trucks to awaken voters and the bugle call was later replaced by folk music mixed with a recording of Chávez’s voice saying “those who love the homeland come with me.” At many polling places, voters lined up two hours before polls opened at dawn.

Chávez’s challenger, Henrique Capriles, has united the opposition in a contest between two camps that distrust each other so deeply there are concerns whether a close election result will be respected.

The stakes couldn’t be higher.

If Chávez wins a new six-year term, he gets a free hand to push for an even bigger state role in the economy, further limit dissent and continue to befriend rivals of the United States.

If Capriles wins, a radical foreign policy shift can be expected along with an eventual loosening of state economic controls and an increase in private investment – though a tense transition would likely follow until the January inauguration because Chávez’s political machine thoroughly controls the wheels of government.

Many Venezuelans were nervous about what might happen if the disputes erupt over the election’s announced outcome.

h/t: HuffPo

Hugo Chávez promises to increase production and reduce dependence on US market by doubling crude exports to Asia

While giant rallies in Caracas may be drawing the world’s attention ahead of tomorrow’s Venezuelan presidential election, the global significance of the vote can be found hundreds of miles to the east in the oil-soaked Orinoco Belt.

According to studies, Venezuela has overtaken Saudi Arabia to become number one in the world for proven oil reserves, largely thanks to the heavy crude found in this vast alluvial plain.

Whether this multi-trillion dollar asset is controlled by Hugo Chávez or the opposition challenger, Henrique Capriles, will influence which countries and companies are given the priority to exploit them and how much drivers around the world pay at the pump. According to a report this year by BP, Venezuela has reserves of 296.5bn barrels, about 10% more than Saudi Arabia and 18% of the global total. At the country’s current levels of production, this would last about 100 years.

If Chávez wins – as most polls suggest – he has promised to ramp up production and reduce his country’s dependence on the US market by doubling crude exports to Asia. To further this goal, Venezuela plans to build a pipeline through Colombia to the Pacific which would reduce costs and transport times to China and other Asian markets.

Capriles, who has mounted a strong challenge, says he would fire the oil minister, Rafael Ramírez, and rethink how crude is extracted and used. Until now Russian and Chinese companies have struck the biggest deals for future exploitation.

“We have to revise every deal. I think they are agreements that are not functioning,” he said. During the campaign, he has also said he would halt subsidised oil shipments to Cuba, Belarus, Nicaragua and Syria. Critics say he is a stalking horse for US interests.

Both Chávez and Capriles are calling for more investment so that Venezuela can increase not only output but also the quality of oil through the use of upgrading technology. But the volatile mix of politics and oil has made it difficult to secure partners.

In recent years Venezuelan oil production has fallen due to poor maintenance, low investment and the loss of key workers. Plans to open new fields have been repeatedly delayed. The state-owned oil company PDVSA says the holdups are over. Last week its joint venture with Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil pumped its first barrel. Another operation, with a Vietnamese firm, has also reportedly begun. Projects with Chevron of the US, Spain’s Repsol and others are due to start early next year.

Oil helps to explain why Chávez is vilified in the US. In 2000, a year after taking power, he made his first mark on global affairs with a tour of the Middle East to lobby key Opec members – Iraq, Iran, Libya, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia – to drive oil prices higher. Since then, the cost of Brent crude has risen from less than $20 a barrel to more than $100.

Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi were among the leaders who joined Chávez to drive up prices. Molina believes it is no coincidence that they were deposed and killed: “There’s a plan in place to control the global oil market. Anyone who tries to erode the monopoly ends up in conflict with the [US] empire.”

In the past, Molina said foreign oil firms were paying only 3% royalties to the government, but Chávez pushed this up to 16%. He also helped to raise the value of the output from the Orinoco Belt by relabelling it as valuable heavy crude instead of cheap bitumin or tar, as it had previously been priced.

Some accuse the US and multinationals of trying to influence the presidential campaign. “Transnationals want control of the oil here. They want the submission of Latin America to supply the market needs of the US,” said Nicmer Evans, a political science professor at the Central University of Venezuela.

But the outside influence cuts both ways. Since 2007, the government has received $42.5bn in loans from the China Development Bank, with the biggest tranche coming in the year ahead of an election in which Chávez has increased public spending, the minimum wage and pensions. This is repaid largely through shipments of 430,000 barrels of crude a day to China in repayment.

Russian president Vladimir Putin showed his support with the gift of a puppy to Chávez this month.

h/t: The Raw Story

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — President Hugo Chávez and his allies accused opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles on Sunday of trying to provoke violence by campaigning in areas that have been bastions of support for the incumbent leader.

Chávez accused Capriles of trying to spur violence as part of a broader plan aimed at creating widespread political upheaval ahead of Venezuela’s looming Oct. 7 presidential election.

The socialist leader spoke after a scuffle Saturday involving stone-throwing Chavistas and opposition sympathizers who joined Capriles as he led a march in the poor Caracas district of La Vega. Police forced him to turn back without completing the march.

“Yesterday, for example, a very lamentable incident occurred. But it’s evidence of this plan,” Chávez said, speaking in front of hundreds of uniformed soldiers at Venezuela’s largest military fort. “We must neutralize the destabilization plans.”

Pro-Chávez lawmaker Juan Carlos Alemán echoed the president’s accusations.

Capriles demonstrated “an irresponsible attitude by staging an event in a neighborhood that backs President Chávez,” said Aleman.

Capriles called for calm and attempted to avoid any violence amid the tussle, which police broke up before violence escalated. No major injuries were reported.

So far, campaigning ahead of an Oct. 7 presidential vote has mostly been peaceful, but observers warn the deep political polarization and rising tensions between allies and adversaries of Chávez could boil over, making for a potentially violent campaign.

h/t: AP.com

President Hugo Chávez’s repeated trips to Cuba for cancer treatment and the government’s silence about his health are fueling rumors that he will name a successor to run in October presidential elections.

So far, the government has fiercely maintained that there is no alternative to Chávez, who still leads in the polls. But several names have begun to circulate among observers to take the helm should Chávez delegate his powers.

Foreign Minister Nicolás Maduro, Vice President Elías Jaua, and National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello are considered potential candidates. They are already cited in polls, triggering speculation over the ramifications of a possible succession battle.

Any departure of Chávez from the national stage would have profound consequences in Venezuela, where he has governed since 1999. It would also have a huge impact across Latin America, especially in leftist ally nations which have been showered with his country’s oil wealth.

Chávez returned to Cuba on Tuesday for what he called the “home stretch” of his radiation treatment, without providing more details. His previous stay, which was supposed to have been his last, stretched out for 11 days.

The exact nature of the cancer has never been disclosed. The 57-year-old underwent an operation in Havana on February 26 to remove a second cancerous tumor in his pelvic area, where a baseball-sized growth was extracted a year ago.

Usually all over the Venezuelan media, Chávez now rarely appears in public and has been reduced to sending out tweets during his long absences in Cuba.

Chávez is running for reelection as a “revolutionary socialist” against Henrique Capriles Radonski, the youthful Miranda state governor and center-left candidate for the united opposition.

h/t: The Raw Story

Venezuelan opposition parties are holding their first primary on Sunday to pick a unity candidate to battle ailing President Hugo Chávez, in power for more than a decade, in an October vote.

Five candidates are running in the opposition contest with the favorite Henrique Capriles, 39, the energetic governor of Miranda state, polls show.

The 57-year-old Chávez, who last year underwent chemotherapy in Caracas and Havana and now claims to be cancer-free, is seeking a third six-year term in the October 7 vote.

A fiery critic of the United States, Chávez is the main political and economic ally of Cuba, the only one-party communist regime in the Americas.

Capriles, telegenic and energetic, has been in politics since 25. His campaign got a boost last month when Leopoldo López, a popular former mayor, dropped out and endorsed him.

He describes his politics as center-left, and has argued that Venezuela can “replicate” Brazil’s model of economic development: allowing markets to play their role, while also making social progress a priority.

Capriles is also known for having confronted Chávez back in 1999, when the governor was a lawmaker.

His main opposition rival is Pablo Pérez Álvarez, 42, of the Un Nuevo Tiempo (A New Era) party.  Pérez governs Zulia, Venezuela’s most populous and wealthiest state.

Both Pérez and Capriles say they want to end the country’s deep political polarization and have pledged to fight poverty. They have campaigned with a conciliatory message and have avoided directly criticizing Chávez.

The other candidates in the race are independent legislator María Corina Machado, labor leader Pablo Medina, and former ambassador Diego Arria. Unlike the governors, these three have chosen to aggressively challenge Chávez.

Capriles and Pérez have emerged in recent months “as favorites precisely because they sought to depolarize the country and refrained from confronting Chávez,” said historian Margarita López Maya.

“It’s apparently an electoral strategy that works,” she added.

Pérez said he does not plan to roll back all of Chávez’s policies.

“We don’t intend to come to power and say: We are ending everything and bringing something else,” he said. “What we view as good, we’ll keep, what needs to be improved we will improve and with what we disagree, we will see.”

The US-backed coalition has called on Venezuelans to head to 7,600 polling stations set up around the country to cast ballots, and have vouched for the confidentiality of their votes.

In January the opposition parties unveiled a unity platform focusing on free-market economics and emphasizing public safety.

This would include an end to price controls, in place since 2003; adoption of a competitive currency exchange rate; reassessing Chávez’s creation of a socialist state; and returning autonomy to the Central Bank.

A key issue will be voter turnout.

The primary is the first of its kind and it remains to be seen what turnout can be rallied. Balloting is also for potential opposition governors and mayors.

Observers will be on hand from countries including Spain, Colombia, Peru, the United States, Australia and Japan.

h/t: RawStory