A new survey of 25 GOP-held districts shows dwindling favorability for Republican members of the House in the wake of the recent government shutdown.
The survey, conducted by liberal-leaning Public Policy Polling and funded by MoveOn.org, is the third in a series of polls that indicate Democrats have a shot at taking back the House of Representatives in the 2014 election cycle.
The results of the latest survey show that incumbent Republicans in 15 of the 25 districts polled trail generic Democratic candidates. When combined with the results of the previous surveys, the polls show that generic Democratic candidates lead in 37 of 61 GOP-held districts.
When voters were informed their Republican candidate supported the government shutdown, 11 more districts flipped and one race became a tie.
Democrats in the House only need to see a net increase of 17 seats in order to take back the majority. This poll indicates that Democrats could see an increase of as many as 49 seats.
Public Policy Polling indicated several caveats to the results. The surveys were conducted during a high-profile budget crisis debate, a year before the elections will take place. And incumbent Republican candidates were compared to “generic Democrats,” who may not represent the actual candidates each district will see.
Pelosi for Speaker in 2014!
Shutting down the government may end up costing Republicans control of the House of Representatives.
A series of polls released Sunday show just how damaging the shutdown has been for the GOP. The liberal-leaning Public Policy Polling compiled two dozen surveys, commissioned and paid for by MoveOn.org Political Action, from House districts around the country, taken from Oct. 2 through Oct. 4. Sample sizes were between 600 and 700 voters in each district.
For Democrats to win a House majority, 17 seats would need to switch to their party’s favor. Results show that would be within reach, as Republican incumbents are behind in 17 of the districts analyzed: CA-31, CO-06, FL-02, FL-10, FL-13, IA-03, IA-04, IL-13, KY-06, MI-01, MI-07, MI-11, NY-19, OH-14, PA-07, PA-08, WI-07. In four districts, the incumbent Republican fell behind after respondents were told their representative supported the government shutdown: CA-10, NY-11, NY-23, VA-02. Three districts saw GOP incumbents maintain their hold over their Democratic challengers, even after hearing their elected officials’ views on the shutdown, including CA-21, NV-03 and OH-06.
A new poll released Thursday night by Alison Lundergan Grimes’ campaign shows trouble for Team McConnell.
A poll by the Mellman Group shows Grimes, the Democratic secretary of state, leading Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell by two points, 44% to 42%. This comes the same day as Public Policy Polling, a left-leaning firm, showed Grimes ahead by one. Both results fall within the margin of error.
The Mellman poll shows Grimes leading among independents, 35% to 28%, and with an even higher margin among moderates, 56% to 23%.
Grimes’ lead isn’t insurmountable–except that McConnell’s approval ratings suggest that he’ll have a hard climb. The Mellman poll shows McConnell’s job disapproval ratings at 58%.
McConnell has been plagued with low approval ratings and PPP’s most recent survey showed 51% of Kentucky voters disapproved of the job he’s been doing. Lundergan Grimes’ campaign adviser Jonathan Hurst told MSNBC.com Thursday that McConnell’s unpopularity is “not surprising” and that Kentucky voters are “tired of the obstruction.”
The Grimes campaign continually attacks McConnell for being disconnected from Kentuckians and a creature of Washington.
“It’s no surprise that Mitch McConnell’s negatives are so high given the fact that he has sided with Washington special interest groups instead of siding with Kentucky’s working families,” said Hurst.
The McConnell campaign dismissed the Mellman results as “concocted” and “fictitious.”
The Mellman Group surveyed 750 Kentucky voters by telephone between July 20-24, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 3.6%.
Let’s go Team Grimes!
Support for increasing the militarization of the border drops 11 points when respondents are told how much it would cost.
Source: Washington Post
From Sea To Shining Sea: Gay Marriage Support Rises In All 50 States
Support for same-sex marriage has grown across all 50 U.S. states over the past eight years, a new report has found.
Published by the UCLA’s Williams Institute, “Public Support for Marriage for Same-Sex Couples by State” examines each state’s current stance on the legality of marriage equality, as well as the overall change in public opinion since 2004.
Over the past eight years, every U.S. state has increased in its support for same-sex marriage, with an average increase of 13.6 percent, and if the public opinion trends continue at the same pace, eight additional states will be above 50 percent support by the end of next year.
But lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) rights advocates shouldn’t get overly optimistic by the report’s findings, as Williams Institute researchers pointed to what was described as “a notable disparity” that exists across state boundaries, according to a press release.
Still, the findings seem in line with a number of other polls: a POLITICO and George Washington University survey found that, out of 1,000 likely voters, 40 percent of respondents said they support marriage equality, while 30 percent said they supported civil unions.
Meanwhile, a LifeWay Research study released in March found that nearly two-thirds of Americans believe legalized same-sex marriage in the U.S. is inevitable.
Read the full Williams Institute poll here.
Conventional wisdom says that the NRA is well-liked. The majority of people, especially women, say otherwise.
With the Supreme Court set to hear landmark cases this week on marriage rights, the evidence is overwhelming that the right has lost the larger national debate. “There’s no putting this genie back in the bottle,” Republican strategist Ana Navarro conceded yesterday. “This is now undeniable. The shift is here. We’re not going back.”
Some in the GOP are struggling with this more than others.
On “Fox News Sunday” yesterday, Gary Bauer, a long-time leader in the religious right movement, was confronted with some uncomfortable data. Host Chris Wallace noted the shifting national polls, which now show most Americans support marriage equality.
Bauer was unmoved. When Wallace asked, “Do you worry that this only puts the Republican Party further out of touch with the mainstream of American voters?” the conservative activist replied, “No, I’m not worried about it because the polls are skewed.”
Conservative activists are certainly free to use whatever talking points they like, but if they don’t want to be laughed at, they should probably stop using the word “skewed” when rejecting polls they don’t like. The last time the right embraced the concept of “skewed” polls, it didn’t turn out well for them.
Besides, if it were one or two polls, ideologues could plausibly argue they’re outliers, but are allthe polls “skewed”?
Consider the national polls since early February: in the latest Fox News poll, a plurality supports marriage equality (49% to 46%); in the latest CNN poll, a majority supports marriage equality (53% to 44%); in the latest Pew Research Center poll, a plurality supports marriage equality (49% to 44%); in the latest ABC/Washington Post poll, a majority supports marriage equality (58% to 36%); in the latest Quinnipiac poll, a plurality supports marriage equality (47% to 43%); in the latest CBS poll, a majority supports marriage equality (54% to 39%).
Just yesterday, the Columbus Dispatch published a statewide poll in Ohio that found 54% of the state wants to overturn a statewide ban marriage equality.
A few hours later, Sen. Claire McCaskill, a moderate Democrat from the increasingly “red” state of Missouri, announced that she too now supports the rights of same-sex couples to marry.
Bauer and his allies can embrace reality or they can stick to their “skewed” line, but either way, they’re losing.
LifeWay is a group dedicated to supporting the Southern Baptist Convention in a variety of ways.LifeWay Christian Resources of the Southern Baptist Convention, established in Nashville, Tennessee, in 1891, is one of the world’s largest providers of Christian products and services, including Bibles, church literature, books, music, audio and video recordings, church supplies, and internet services through LifeWay.com. The company also owns and operates 160 LifeWay Christian Stores across the nation, as well as one of the largest Christian conference centers in the country.
Their most recent venture conducted for the SBC surely isn’t sitting very well with church leaders. A survey released today shows pretty much what all polls have been showing. Respect for equal rights is trending while bigotry and homophobia are on the run.As public policy continues to change on the issue, a LifeWay Research poll shows 58 percent of American adults agree it is a civil rights issue and 64 percent believe it is inevitable same-sex marriage will become legal throughout the United States.
LifeWay Research conducted a wide-ranging survey of American adults on questions surrounding same-sex marriage; specifically examining whether clergy, wedding photographers, rental halls, landlords, and employers have the right to refuse access and services to same-sex couples even if same-sex marriage is made legal in their state.
According to the findings:
64 percent of those polled agreed “it is inevitable that same-sex marriage will become legal throughout the United States.”
80 percent of Americans disagree that employers should be allowed to refuse employment to someone based on their sexual preference.
58 percent of respondents agreed with the question: “like age, race, and gender, homosexuality is a civil rights issue.”
A majority of Americans believe rental halls and landlords should not be allowed to discriminate against same-sex couples.
More Americans do not believe homosexual behavior is a sin than those who believe it is a sin.
There is just no good way to spin these results into anything remotely positive for the SBC’s deeply bigoted stance on anything and everything gay.
Will the Illinois House of Representatives pass the Religious Freedom and Marriage Fairness Act (IL SB10), which would make Illinois the 10th state to get marriage equality legalized?
Options are yes or no.
4th Annual TV News Trust Poll [Fixed Noise wins both most- and least-trusted 1st choice] - Public Policy Polling
PPP’s annual poll on TV news finds that there’s only one source more Americans trust than distrust: PBS. 52% of voters say they trust PBS to only 29% who don’t trust it. The other seven outlets we polled on are all distrusted by a plurality of voters.
When it comes to asking Americans which single outlet they trust the most and least out of the ones we polled on, Fox News once again wins both honors. 34% say it’s the one they trust the most, compared to 13% for PBS, 12% for CNN, 11% for ABC, 8% for MSNBC, 6% for CBS, and 5% each for Comedy Central and NBC. Fox News is the choice of 67% of Republicans, while Democrats basically split their allegiances four ways between ABC and CNN, both at 17%, and MSNBC and PBS, both at 16%.
Even more Americans identify Fox News as the outlet they trust the least- 39% give its that designation to 14% for MSNBC, 13% for CNN, 12% for Comedy Central, 5% for ABC and CBS, 3% for NBC, and 1% for PBS. 60% of Democrats give it their lowest marks while Republicans split between MSNBC (24%), CNN (19%), and Comedy Central (14%) on that front.
(via Think Progress Justice: Communism, Polygamy And Human Cloning Are More Popular Than The NRA’s Position On Gun Safety)
Meanwhile, the latest poll from Gallup shows that just 8 percent of the country agrees with the NRA on background checks. Other polls found a higher approval rating for polygamy (which 11 percent of respondents support), and Congress (9 percent). Additionally, polls have found more support for support Hugo Chávez (9 percent), human cloning (17 percent) and communism (9 percent) than the NRA’s position on this issue. Exactly the same percentage of people support the Panetta-Burns deficit reduction plan — which doesn’t exist.
In what could be just enough of an opening for equality advocates to seize, a poll released Thursday showed Minnesota voters narrowly supporting same-sex marriage.
According to the latest survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, 47 percent of Minnesota voters favor making same-sex marriage legal compared with 45 percent who are opposed. In response to a separate question, 43 percent said they support legally permitting marriage for same-sex couples while 32 percent said they should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry. Only 23 percent said same-sex couples should receive no legal recognition.
Combined with other factors, polling numbers like that could provide fertile ground for advocates to pursue a measure that would legalize same-sex marriage in the state. In November, a slim majority of Minnesota voters rejected a proposed constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage.
H/T: TPM LiveWire
Per Repubmussen Poll, House Speaker John Boehner Replaces Nancy Pelosi As Least Popular Congressional Leader In US History!!!
According to a new poll by Rasmussen Reports, House Speaker John Boehner now has the dubious honor of being the nation’s least popular member of congressional leadership. With 51 percent of voters disapproving of his performance, Boehner replaces Nancy Pelosi as the least liked member of congressional leadership, a post she held for several years.
With a net favorability rating of negative 20, Boehner’s approval numbers are at the lowest point since he accepted the position of House Speaker. Even among his own party the results aren’t much better: only 55 percent of Republicans approve of his performance.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) didn’t fare much better, with an unfavorable rating of 36 percent.
Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid rounded out the Democratic leadership, with unfavorable reviews of 50 percent and 42 percent, respectively.
The only Congressional politician to get overall positive remarks was Vice President Joe Biden, with a 49 percent favorability rating versus 45 percent unfavorable.
The Rasmussen poll surveyed 900 likely voters by phone between Dec. 18 and Dec. 19, and reporter a 3 percent margin of error.
Kablammo! There go GOP Gov. Rick Snyder’s approval ratings and his standing for re-election. PPP just lays him out:Just last month when we took a first look at the 2014 landscape we talked about how much Rick Snyder had improved his popularity during his second year in office and how he led a generic Democrat for reelection by 6 points, even as Barack Obama won the state comfortably.
Last week he threw all that out the window.
We now find Snyder as one of the most unpopular Governors in the country. Only 38% of voters approve of him to 56% who disapprove. There are only 2 other sitting Governors we’ve polled on who have a worse net approval rating than Snyder’s -18. He’s dropped a net 28 points from our last poll on him, the weekend before the election, when he was at a +10 spread (47/37).
Three words are to blame here: right to work. Well, of course, Snyder himself is to blame: After telling the state of Michigan that he would not push through anti-union and anti-worker “right to work” legislation (that Orwellian epithet really means “right to work for less”), he went ahead and did exactly that during a shameful lame-duck session of the legislature. (Michigan Republicans lost seats this November, so they wanted to force a vote while they still had greater numbers.) Overall, voters oppose RTW 51-41, and a similar 49-40 margin says they’d vote to overturn the law if given the chance at the ballot box.
And now for the really fun stuff. If Snyder does indeed run for a second term—something he previously said he might not do—well, he’d get pummeled, if his fortunes don’t somehow turn around. Here’s how he does against a passel of possible contenders:38-49 vs. 2010 nominee Virg Bernero
39-47 vs. Rep. Gary Peters
38-46 vs. state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer
39-44 vs. ex-Rep. Mark Schauer
Note that ceiling of 38 to 39 percent for Snyder: All of his potential opponents are unknown to half the state, even Bernero. That means, at least right now, voters are really thinking “anyone but Snyder.” Hell, as Tom Jensen points out, Bernero lost by 18 points in 2010, so these new numbers constitute a remarkable 29-point reversal of fortune.
Don’t be thinking recall, though: Voters still oppose the notion 48-44, and as we saw in Wisconsin, those numbers tend to get worse over time, not better.